Betting Lines
| Spread | NWST -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | HCU +188 NWST -188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NWST +13 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | NWST -1.5 (-11.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.7 (+10.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NWST -2.2 (-10.8) | 146.3 (+12.7) | 37% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NWST -2.7 (-10.3) | 148.1 (+10.9) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NWST -1.8 (-11.2) | 146.5 (+12.5) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NWST -2.4 (-10.6) | 146.6 (+12.4) | 36% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | NWST 71 – 53 HCU |
| Jan 20, 2026 | HCU 82 – 80 NWST |
| Mar 1, 2025 | NWST 61 – 56 HCU |
| Dec 7, 2024 | NWST 64 – 57 HCU |
| Jan 15, 2024 | NWST 69 – 64 HCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HCU | NWST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-23 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 7-11 |
| Home | 5-8 | 6-7 |
| Away | 1-15 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L7 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 84.8 | 76.7 |
| Massey | -16.2 (#356) | -11.3 (#332) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.52 (#350) | -2.08 (#335) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.42 (#355) | -2.40 (#332) |
| RPI | 0.394 (#343) | 0.403 (#333) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HCU | NWST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 29.0% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.63 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.1% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.7% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 66.5% | 65.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 28.3% |
Game Analysis
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