Betting Lines
| Spread | HCU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | HCU -155 NWST +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HCU +2 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | HCU -3.6 (-1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.9 (+17.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HCU -1.5 (+0.5) | 138.9 (+23.1) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HCU -1.3 (+0.7) | 136.4 (+25.6) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HCU -1.6 (+0.4) | 136.1 (+25.9) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HCU -1.4 (+0.6) | 139.5 (+22.5) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | NWST 71 – 53 HCU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | NWST 61 – 56 HCU |
| Dec 7, 2024 | NWST 64 – 57 HCU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | NWST 86 – 73 HCU |
| Jan 15, 2024 | NWST 69 – 64 HCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HCU | NWST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 8-14 | 8-14 |
| Home | 9-5 | 8-6 |
| Away | 3-14 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.3 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 72.9 |
| Massey | -7.4 (#276) | -7.6 (#283) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.84 (#323) | -1.38 (#292) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.09 (#307) | -1.84 (#289) |
| RPI | 0.409 (#333) | 0.422 (#312) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HCU | NWST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 28.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 24.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 32.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.8% | 56.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 65.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 29.2% |
Game Analysis
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