This will be our year, took a long time to come "This Will Be Our Year" - The Zombies
Mid-American Conference · McGuirk Arena · February 21, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread CMU -3.5 Home covered
O/U 150.5 Over
Money CMU -185 / WMU +154
Model Predictions
Spread Total CMU win
Actual CMU +13 153 Won
Massey CMU -2.7 (+10.3)
Massey Totals 152.5 (+0.5)
Bradley-Terry 48%
Weighted B-T 51%
Baseline Plus ML CMU -2.2 (+10.8) 146.8 (+6.2) 62%
Model 4 ML CMU -1.8 (+11.2) 144.5 (+8.5) 61%
Model 3 ML CMU -2.3 (+10.7) 145.1 (+7.9) 62%
Baseline ML CMU -2.5 (+10.5) 146.3 (+6.7) 64%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 24, 2026 WMU 7765 CMU
Feb 22, 2025 CMU 8657 WMU
Jan 26, 2025 CMU 7352 WMU
Feb 18, 2024 CMU 6942 WMU
Jan 27, 2024 CMU 6255 WMU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings CMU WMU
Overall 10-21 10-21
Conference 6-12 4-14
Home 8-5 7-8
Away 1-15 3-13
Neutral 1-1 0-0
Last 5 2-3 1-4
Streak L2 L3
Avg Pts For 71.7 73.9
Avg Pts Against 77.7 80.1
Massey -7.5 (#285) -7.2 (#280)
Bradley-Terry -1.55 (#305) -0.98 (#254)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.69 (#285) -1.17 (#250)
RPI 0.433 (#311) 0.454 (#264)
Shooting & Four Factors CMU WMU
FG% 45.5% 43.8%
3PT% 32.8% 35.5%
REB / G 32.1 36.0
OREB / G 10.0 11.2
AST / TO 1.17 1.10
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.0% 50.3%
TOV% 17.9% 17.0%
ORB% 29.1% 31.2%
FT Rate 21.2% 22.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 53.7% 54.7%
Opp TOV% 16.8% 13.4%
DRB% 65.6% 70.0%
Opp FT Rate 27.9% 25.1%

Game Analysis

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