Betting Lines
| Spread | MORG -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | MORG -218 DSU +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MORG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MORG +14 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | MORG -5.4 (+8.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.6 (+7.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MORG -4.5 (+9.5) | 135.6 (+14.4) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MORG -5.0 (+9.0) | 136.1 (+13.9) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MORG -4.2 (+9.8) | 136.7 (+13.3) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MORG -4.1 (+9.9) | 139.8 (+10.2) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | DSU 75 – 70 MORG |
| Jan 17, 2026 | MORG 80 – 79 DSU |
| Mar 4, 2025 | MORG 87 – 81 DSU |
| Feb 4, 2025 | DSU 84 – 82 MORG |
| Feb 20, 2024 | DSU 80 – 58 MORG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MORG | DSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-16 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 10-4 | 2-12 |
| Home | 9-6 | 5-7 |
| Away | 5-9 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 59.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.1 | 71.4 |
| Massey | -16.6 (#356) | -19.0 (#360) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.20 (#341) | -3.29 (#359) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.34 (#349) | -4.13 (#360) |
| RPI | 0.401 (#348) | 0.360 (#363) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MORG | DSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 38.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 29.0% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 29.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.4% | 42.4% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 30.8% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.9% | 54.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 65.5% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 38.6% | 28.1% |
Game Analysis
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