Betting Lines
| Spread | DSU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 165.5 Over |
| Money | MORG +100 DSU -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MORG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MORG +6 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | DSU -0.4 (+6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.6 (+2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DSU -0.3 (+6.3) | 159.5 (+8.5) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MORG -0.3 (+5.7) | 159.1 (+8.9) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DSU -0.2 (+6.2) | 158.9 (+9.1) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DSU -0.2 (+6.2) | 158.4 (+9.6) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | DSU 75 – 70 MORG |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MORG 82 – 68 DSU |
| Jan 17, 2026 | MORG 80 – 79 DSU |
| Feb 4, 2025 | DSU 84 – 82 MORG |
| Feb 20, 2024 | DSU 80 – 58 MORG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MORG | DSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 16-14 |
| Conference | 7-7 | 8-6 |
| Home | 11-4 | 11-2 |
| Away | 2-13 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 75.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.8 | 78.6 |
| Massey | -12.1 (#340) | -8.5 (#302) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.03 (#334) | -1.20 (#279) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.53 (#333) | -1.85 (#301) |
| RPI | 0.403 (#341) | 0.443 (#289) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MORG | DSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 62.5% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 28.6% |
Game Analysis
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