So let the words of our mouth and the meditation of our heart be acceptable in thy sight, O Fari! "By the RIvers of Babylon"-The Melodians
Dayton Flyers
78 66
FINAL Conference
Duquesne Dukes
Atlantic 10 Conference · UD Arena · February 21, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread DAY -6.5 Home covered
O/U 148.5 Under
Money DAY -305 / DUQ +245
Model Predictions
Spread Total DAY win
Actual DAY +12 144 Won
Massey DAY -5.6 (+6.4)
Massey Totals 155.7 (-11.7)
Bradley-Terry 77%
Weighted B-T 83%
Efficiency Plus ML DAY -6.7 (+5.3) 152.0 (-8.0) 75%
Baseline Tuned ML DAY -5.9 (+6.1) 148.4 (-4.4) 71%
Baseline ML DAY -5.7 (+6.3) 150.1 (-6.1) 73%
Baseline Plus ML DAY -5.8 (+6.2) 151.6 (-7.6) 76%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 14, 2026 DAY 7165 DUQ
Feb 15, 2025 DAY 7776 DUQ
Jan 22, 2025 DAY 8262 DUQ
Mar 15, 2024 DUQ 6557 DAY
Feb 14, 2024 DAY 7559 DUQ

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings DAY DUQ
Overall 25-12 18-15
Conference 12-6 9-9
Home 14-4 12-6
Away 8-5 5-7
Neutral 3-3 1-2
Last 5 3-2 5-0
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 74.1 76.9
Avg Pts Against 69.3 75.9
Massey 6.2 (#95) 3.5 (#117)
Bradley-Terry 1.22 (#82) 0.52 (#113)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.65 (#81) 0.63 (#122)
RPI 0.569 (#60) 0.532 (#108)
Shooting & Four Factors DAY DUQ
FG% 45.1% 46.4%
3PT% 33.5% 34.3%
REB / G 32.9 35.0
OREB / G 9.1 10.1
AST / TO 1.18 1.20
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.9% 54.2%
TOV% 17.3% 17.7%
ORB% 27.6% 29.3%
FT Rate 35.5% 28.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.5% 51.4%
Opp TOV% 22.0% 18.3%
DRB% 69.8% 70.4%
Opp FT Rate 24.8% 29.5%

Game Analysis

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