Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | DAY -305 DUQ +245 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +12 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -5.6 (+6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.7 (-11.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -5.8 (+6.2) | 151.6 (-7.6) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -6.7 (+5.3) | 152.0 (-8.0) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -5.9 (+6.1) | 148.4 (-4.4) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -5.7 (+6.3) | 150.1 (-6.1) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 14, 2026 | DAY 71 – 65 DUQ |
| Feb 15, 2025 | DAY 77 – 76 DUQ |
| Jan 22, 2025 | DAY 82 – 62 DUQ |
| Mar 15, 2024 | DUQ 65 – 57 DAY |
| Feb 14, 2024 | DAY 75 – 59 DUQ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | DUQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-12 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 9-9 |
| Home | 14-4 | 12-6 |
| Away | 8-5 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 76.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 75.9 |
| Massey | 6.2 (#95) | 3.5 (#117) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.22 (#82) | 0.52 (#113) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.65 (#81) | 0.63 (#122) |
| RPI | 0.569 (#60) | 0.532 (#108) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | DUQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 35.5% | 28.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 29.5% |
Game Analysis
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