Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | DAY -300 DUQ +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUQ +8 | 122 | Lost |
| Massey | DAY -6.9 (-14.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.5 (-12.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -4.0 (-12.0) | 134.2 (-12.2) | 63% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -4.8 (-12.8) | 134.2 (-12.2) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -4.9 (-12.9) | 135.6 (-13.6) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -4.8 (-12.8) | 134.6 (-12.6) | 65% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | DAY 78 – 66 DUQ |
| Jan 14, 2026 | DAY 71 – 65 DUQ |
| Feb 15, 2025 | DAY 77 – 76 DUQ |
| Jan 22, 2025 | DAY 82 – 62 DUQ |
| Feb 14, 2024 | DAY 75 – 59 DUQ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | DUQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 25-12 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 10-8 |
| Home | 15-0 | 13-4 |
| Away | 6-5 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 7-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 12.5 (#34) | 5.7 (#100) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.45 (#16) | 1.37 (#78) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.00 (#17) | 1.57 (#81) |
| RPI | 0.639 (#3) | 0.582 (#44) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | DUQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 40.7% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.2% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.0% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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