Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | DUQ +124 DAY -148 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +6 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | DAY -2.9 (-3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.9 (-26.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -2.2 (-3.8) | 152.5 (-16.5) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -2.5 (-3.5) | 150.9 (-14.9) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -3.0 (-3.0) | 151.4 (-15.4) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -3.5 (-2.5) | 153.3 (-17.3) | 31% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | DAY 78 – 66 DUQ |
| Feb 15, 2025 | DAY 77 – 76 DUQ |
| Jan 22, 2025 | DAY 82 – 62 DUQ |
| Mar 15, 2024 | DUQ 65 – 57 DAY |
| Feb 14, 2024 | DAY 75 – 59 DUQ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUQ | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 25-12 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 12-6 |
| Home | 12-6 | 14-4 |
| Away | 5-7 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.9 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.9 | 69.3 |
| Massey | 0.8 (#150) | 7.1 (#86) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.28 (#201) | 1.28 (#82) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.36 (#196) | 1.61 (#85) |
| RPI | 0.482 (#209) | 0.565 (#77) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUQ | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.1% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 35.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 23.9% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.9% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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