Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | DAY -750 DUQ +475 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +1 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -10.4 (-9.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.2 (+15.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -10.1 (-9.1) | 136.5 (+16.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -9.9 (-8.9) | 136.6 (+16.4) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -9.6 (-8.6) | 137.7 (+15.3) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -9.7 (-8.7) | 136.8 (+16.2) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | DAY 78 – 66 DUQ |
| Jan 14, 2026 | DAY 71 – 65 DUQ |
| Jan 22, 2025 | DAY 82 – 62 DUQ |
| Mar 15, 2024 | DUQ 65 – 57 DAY |
| Feb 14, 2024 | DAY 75 – 59 DUQ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | DUQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 8-10 |
| Home | 16-2 | 9-7 |
| Away | 5-5 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 68.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 68.1 |
| Massey | 7.4 (#81) | 0.2 (#158) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.32 (#73) | -0.45 (#214) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.76 (#69) | -0.12 (#175) |
| RPI | 0.565 (#64) | 0.482 (#212) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | DUQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.51 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 28.7% | 17.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 28.1% |
Game Analysis
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