Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | DUQ +135 DAY -160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +20 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | DAY -1.8 (-18.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.9 (+6.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -0.4 (-19.6) | 137.1 (+6.9) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -0.7 (-19.3) | 139.2 (+4.8) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -0.7 (-19.3) | 140.0 (+4.0) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -0.5 (-19.5) | 139.7 (+4.3) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | DAY 78 – 66 DUQ |
| Jan 14, 2026 | DAY 71 – 65 DUQ |
| Feb 15, 2025 | DAY 77 – 76 DUQ |
| Mar 15, 2024 | DUQ 65 – 57 DAY |
| Feb 14, 2024 | DAY 75 – 59 DUQ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUQ | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 12-6 |
| Home | 9-7 | 16-2 |
| Away | 2-8 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.4 | 75.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 2.0 (#126) | 7.4 (#77) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.01 (#181) | 1.25 (#80) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#146) | 1.79 (#75) |
| RPI | 0.524 (#135) | 0.556 (#81) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUQ | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 29.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.0% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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