Sometimes we're not prepared for adversity. "Mercy, Mercy, Mercy" - The Cannonball Adderley Quartet
Dayton Flyers
75 59
FINAL Conference
Duquesne Dukes
Atlantic 10 Conference · UD Arena · February 14, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread DAY -7.5 Home covered
O/U 134.5 Under
Money DAY -400 / DUQ +280
Model Predictions
Spread Total DAY win
Actual DAY +16 134 Won
Massey DAY -11.6 (+4.4)
Massey Totals 134.3 (-0.3)
Bradley-Terry 91%
Weighted B-T 94%
Efficiency Plus ML DAY -10.5 (+5.5) 136.3 (-2.3) 83%
Baseline Tuned ML DAY -10.5 (+5.5) 134.3 (-0.3) 84%
Baseline ML DAY -9.9 (+6.1) 135.0 (-1.0) 83%
Baseline Plus ML DAY -10.7 (+5.3) 135.0 (-1.0) 83%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 21, 2026 DAY 7866 DUQ
Jan 14, 2026 DAY 7165 DUQ
Feb 15, 2025 DAY 7776 DUQ
Jan 22, 2025 DAY 8262 DUQ
Mar 15, 2024 DUQ 6557 DAY

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings DAY DUQ
Overall 25-8 25-12
Conference 14-4 10-8
Home 15-0 13-4
Away 6-5 5-6
Neutral 4-3 7-2
Last 5 3-2 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 74.2 69.9
Avg Pts Against 66.5 67.2
Massey 13.0 (#31) 4.7 (#105)
Bradley-Terry 2.63 (#13) 1.01 (#101)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.27 (#10) 1.21 (#103)
RPI 0.649 (#4) 0.568 (#70)
Shooting & Four Factors DAY DUQ
FG% 47.2% 42.6%
3PT% 39.5% 32.6%
REB / G 34.3 35.5
OREB / G 8.3 11.0
AST / TO 1.50 1.10
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 56.0% 49.3%
TOV% 15.4% 16.9%
ORB% 27.1% 30.4%
FT Rate 27.3% 24.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 46.4% 48.2%
Opp TOV% 15.7% 19.3%
DRB% 69.7% 69.0%
Opp FT Rate 14.5% 25.5%

Game Analysis

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