Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | DAY -400 DUQ +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +16 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -11.6 (+4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.3 (-0.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -10.7 (+5.3) | 135.0 (-1.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -10.5 (+5.5) | 136.3 (-2.3) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -10.5 (+5.5) | 134.3 (-0.3) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -9.9 (+6.1) | 135.0 (-1.0) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | DAY 78 – 66 DUQ |
| Jan 14, 2026 | DAY 71 – 65 DUQ |
| Feb 15, 2025 | DAY 77 – 76 DUQ |
| Jan 22, 2025 | DAY 82 – 62 DUQ |
| Mar 15, 2024 | DUQ 65 – 57 DAY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | DUQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 25-12 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 10-8 |
| Home | 15-0 | 13-4 |
| Away | 6-5 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 7-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 13.0 (#31) | 4.7 (#105) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.63 (#13) | 1.01 (#101) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.27 (#10) | 1.21 (#103) |
| RPI | 0.649 (#4) | 0.568 (#70) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | DUQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 39.5% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.5% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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