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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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34–14 on winners spread MAE 8.1 48 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Memphis @ South Florida	+8.1	153.6	79%	66–87	✓
UNC Asheville @ High Point	+13.1	146.9	87%	48–74	✓
Longwood @ Presbyterian	+1.5	139.5	59%	65–72	✓
Gardner-Webb @ Radford	+15.1	153.2	89%	70–82	✓
IU Indianapolis @ Wright State	+11.9	156.5	87%	73–85	✓
Wagner @ Mercyhurst	+5.0	135.1	69%	83–80	✗
Stonehill @ New Haven	+2.5	123.0	59%	51–64	✓
Long Island University @ Saint Francis	-10.6	143.1	15%	91–89	✓
Le Moyne @ Central Connecticut	+2.7	141.6	64%	77–78	✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Chicago State	-0.4	135.2	44%	60–59	✓
UAlbany @ NJIT	+4.3	138.3	71%	81–63	✗
Monmouth @ UNC Wilmington	+8.3	138.9	81%	69–79	✓
Drexel @ Northeastern	+0.2	141.5	49%	70–61	✗
William & Mary @ Campbell	-0.9	159.4	47%	83–84	✗
Charleston @ North Carolina A&T	-3.3	142.2	34%	74–61	✓
Samford @ The Citadel	-7.3	141.4	24%	78–75	✓
Chattanooga @ Mercer	+10.4	145.2	86%	94–90	✗
Austin Peay @ North Florida	-12.1	157.1	15%	77–76	✓
Alabama State @ Bethune-Cookman	+4.5	142.5	68%	71–82	✓
Kansas City @ North Dakota	+10.4	145.5	85%	70–85	✓
Hampton @ Hofstra	+11.9	133.6	88%	43–79	✓
Texas State @ South Alabama	+4.6	140.7	68%	90–82	✗
Arkansas State @ Louisiana	-7.9	141.7	24%	79–62	✓
Georgia Southern @ Georgia State	+0.6	146.8	52%	64–66	✓
Central Arkansas @ Stetson	-7.6	145.7	23%	88–76	✓
California Baptist @ Utah Valley	+6.6	139.1	74%	46–65	✓
Utah Tech @ UT Arlington	+2.3	139.8	62%	50–63	✓
Southern Utah @ Tarleton State	+7.2	143.7	77%	74–78	✓
UT Martin @ Little Rock	-4.7	131.0	28%	65–67	✗
Southern Indiana @ Western Illinois	-2.0	133.3	36%	77–70	✓
Lindenwood @ Tennessee State	+3.0	152.6	65%	80–89	✓
Morehead State @ Eastern Illinois	-0.3	134.8	46%	73–70	✓
Prairie View A&M @ Mississippi Valley State	-10.2	145.7	15%	72–62	✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Tennessee Tech	-1.9	133.5	40%	52–62	✗
Texas Southern @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff	+1.9	148.3	60%	83–64	✗
Cal State Northridge @ UC Santa Barbara	+4.0	154.4	66%	85–83	✗
South Dakota @ Denver	+4.6	159.9	69%	70–90	✓
Montana State @ Weber State	+0.2	145.6	50%	79–82	✓
Montana @ Idaho State	-0.6	144.8	47%	69–73	✗
Idaho @ Portland State	+5.3	142.0	74%	67–77	✓
Tulane @ North Texas	+4.4	134.3	69%	77–71	✗
Alabama A&M @ Florida A&M	+0.0	135.9	47%	63–61	✗
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC Riverside	+5.4	146.0	70%	65–93	✓
UC Davis @ Cal State Fullerton	+0.7	149.4	54%	92–93	✓
UC Irvine @ Long Beach State	-5.2	140.6	27%	69–58	✓
Eastern Washington @ Sacramento State	-0.6	158.7	49%	102–94	✓
Cal Poly @ Hawai'i	+11.4	154.5	87%	86–75	✗
Akron @ Ball State	-14.1	141.2	14%	78–65	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.