Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | UNCW -380 MONM +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +10 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | UNCW -8.7 (+1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.7 (+8.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -9.7 (+0.3) | 140.6 (+7.4) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -8.3 (+1.7) | 138.9 (+9.1) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -8.2 (+1.8) | 141.3 (+6.7) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -9.3 (+0.7) | 140.0 (+8.0) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2025 | UNCW 64 – 55 MONM |
| Jan 12, 2024 | UNCW 69 – 56 MONM |
| Jan 27, 2023 | UNCW 52 – 49 MONM |
| Dec 28, 2022 | UNCW 68 – 55 MONM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-7 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 11-7 |
| Home | 15-4 | 10-4 |
| Away | 12-2 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.6 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 70.9 |
| Massey | 3.9 (#113) | -1.9 (#199) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.33 (#76) | -0.31 (#202) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.45 (#84) | -0.57 (#211) |
| RPI | 0.567 (#61) | 0.483 (#217) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 30.2% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 66.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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