Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Under |
| Money | UNCW -1400 MONM +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +3 | 101 | Won |
| Massey | UNCW -22.1 (-19.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.3 (-28.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -15.3 (-12.3) | 123.8 (-22.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -14.8 (-11.8) | 130.7 (-29.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -15.8 (-12.8) | 129.4 (-28.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -16.4 (-13.4) | 127.1 (-26.1) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | UNCW 79 – 69 MONM |
| Jan 10, 2025 | UNCW 64 – 55 MONM |
| Jan 12, 2024 | UNCW 69 – 56 MONM |
| Dec 28, 2022 | UNCW 68 – 55 MONM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-10 | 7-26 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 5-13 |
| Home | 11-3 | 3-10 |
| Away | 8-6 | 3-15 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.0 | 61.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 74.7 |
| Massey | 0.9 (#149) | -17.6 (#359) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.27 (#74) | -2.98 (#357) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.44 (#80) | -3.77 (#359) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#88) | 0.427 (#305) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 38.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 26.1% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 42.1% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 22.9% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 30.7% | 18.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 57.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 65.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 28.0% |
Game Analysis
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