Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | UNCW -400 MONM +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +13 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | UNCW -6.3 (+6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.3 (-21.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -7.4 (+5.6) | 142.8 (-17.8) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -4.4 (+8.6) | 141.9 (-16.9) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -4.0 (+9.0) | 142.9 (-17.9) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -3.9 (+9.1) | 143.1 (-18.1) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | UNCW 79 – 69 MONM |
| Jan 10, 2025 | UNCW 64 – 55 MONM |
| Jan 27, 2023 | UNCW 52 – 49 MONM |
| Dec 28, 2022 | UNCW 68 – 55 MONM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-10 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-2 | 13-1 |
| Away | 10-6 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#129) | 0.1 (#168) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.88 (#106) | 0.94 (#96) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.92 (#117) | 1.17 (#105) |
| RPI | 0.553 (#92) | 0.539 (#111) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 12.6% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 27.5% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.5% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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