Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | MONM +170 UNCW -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MONM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +9 | 119 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCW -3.0 (-6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.3 (-27.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -3.7 (-5.3) | 142.4 (-23.4) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -3.0 (-6.0) | 143.5 (-24.5) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -2.8 (-6.2) | 144.1 (-25.1) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -4.0 (-5.0) | 144.5 (-25.5) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | UNCW 79 – 69 MONM |
| Jan 12, 2024 | UNCW 69 – 56 MONM |
| Jan 27, 2023 | UNCW 52 – 49 MONM |
| Dec 28, 2022 | UNCW 68 – 55 MONM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MONM | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 14-4 |
| Home | 8-2 | 15-3 |
| Away | 4-14 | 9-4 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 70.3 |
| Massey | -7.3 (#289) | -0.2 (#164) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.73 (#312) | -0.02 (#170) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.15 (#305) | -0.11 (#176) |
| RPI | 0.414 (#317) | 0.492 (#185) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MONM | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.8% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 29.1% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.2% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 34.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 66.2% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.3% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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