Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | MONM +750 UNCW -900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MONM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +13 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCW -17.3 (+4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.0 (-14.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -11.5 (-1.5) | 133.6 (-10.6) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -13.8 (+0.8) | 139.0 (-16.0) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -12.6 (-0.4) | 138.9 (-15.9) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -14.9 (+1.9) | 134.4 (-11.4) | 13% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | UNCW 79 – 69 MONM |
| Jan 10, 2025 | UNCW 64 – 55 MONM |
| Jan 12, 2024 | UNCW 69 – 56 MONM |
| Jan 27, 2023 | UNCW 52 – 49 MONM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MONM | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-26 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 12-6 |
| Home | 3-10 | 11-3 |
| Away | 3-15 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.7 | 67.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 65.2 |
| Massey | -17.0 (#360) | 5.1 (#93) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.00 (#324) | 2.54 (#19) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.48 (#327) | 3.03 (#28) |
| RPI | 0.417 (#310) | 0.652 (#7) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MONM | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.3% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 28.7% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 31.1 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.69 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.6% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 24.1% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 31.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.5% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 65.5% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.0% | 28.2% |
Game Analysis
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