Don't talk to me about your big, big heroes "Kelly's Heroes" - Black Grape
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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41–18 on winners spread MAE 9.4 59 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Creighton @ UConn +15.5 144.4 89% 91–84 ✗
Arkansas @ Alabama +4.1 174.8 66% 115–117 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Indiana State -6.0 135.0 25% 81–60 ✓
Bradley @ Valparaiso -0.5 140.9 48% 72–79 ✗
American University @ Bucknell -2.5 139.9 37% 75–57 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ St. Bonaventure +4.3 141.0 68% 71–65 ✗
Loyola Chicago @ Fordham +9.5 132.6 85% 59–62 ✓
La Salle @ Duquesne +9.8 141.4 84% 61–62 ✓
Dayton @ George Mason +3.0 134.5 67% 82–67 ✗
Richmond @ Davidson +4.4 141.0 71% 63–65 ✓
Wichita State @ East Carolina -8.7 141.6 19% 92–89 ✓
UAB @ Temple +0.3 142.5 51% 76–71 ✗
Clemson @ Wake Forest -2.2 138.1 40% 77–85 ✗
Army @ Loyola Maryland +4.1 145.1 68% 87–77 ✗
Lehigh @ Navy +11.9 141.6 85% 49–72 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Northern Kentucky +4.7 149.1 69% 71–87 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Western Carolina +3.8 153.3 65% 77–91 ✓
James Madison @ Coastal Carolina +1.6 139.7 60% 67–65 ✗
Ole Miss @ Texas A&M +11.1 152.0 84% 77–80 ✓
Oklahoma @ Tennessee +12.0 149.9 87% 66–89 ✓
West Georgia @ Eastern Kentucky +4.0 150.4 66% 80–81 ✓
Jacksonville @ Florida Gulf Coast +5.4 140.0 72% 84–86 ✓
Queens University @ North Alabama -6.6 155.6 25% 85–78 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Delaware -2.5 137.7 40% 88–87 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Drake -0.5 143.3 48% 66–61 ✓
Troy @ UL Monroe -12.7 152.7 14% 77–76 ✓
Lipscomb @ Bellarmine -1.5 154.6 43% 75–72 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Sam Houston +6.0 147.6 76% 70–78 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Louisiana Tech +1.2 128.4 52% 71–77 ✓
North Carolina Central @ South Carolina State -2.4 135.0 36% 72–85 ✗
UIC @ Evansville -7.8 137.2 23% 84–46 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ UTSA -12.9 150.3 14% 60–52 ✓
Charlotte @ Tulsa +12.5 150.1 87% 74–79 ✓
Maryland @ Northwestern +8.6 140.1 80% 74–78 ✓
DePaul @ Seton Hall +8.1 128.9 78% 69–57 ✗
Oral Roberts @ Omaha +8.5 146.4 81% 71–80 ✓
North Dakota State @ South Dakota State -1.0 146.5 43% 74–66 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Missouri State +1.6 148.6 58% 91–87 ✗
Utah @ West Virginia +8.4 130.5 80% 61–56 ✗
BYU @ Arizona +12.1 163.4 85% 68–75 ✓
Kansas @ Oklahoma State -5.2 150.0 28% 81–69 ✓
Virginia @ Georgia Tech -12.7 142.9 14% 94–68 ✓
St. John's @ Marquette -8.5 149.5 21% 76–70 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Missouri -5.7 151.0 32% 80–81 ✗
Murray State @ Illinois State +4.4 149.5 69% 61–78 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Seattle U -7.5 131.3 22% 72–70 ✓
Auburn @ Mississippi State -3.8 154.0 38% 85–91 ✗
Pacific @ Washington State +1.3 142.1 58% 70–87 ✓
Illinois @ USC -6.3 151.9 27% 101–65 ✓
Pepperdine @ Portland +6.7 143.3 76% 95–87 ✗
Boise State @ Utah State +10.5 154.0 84% 56–75 ✓
Gonzaga @ San Francisco -13.4 149.4 15% 80–59 ✓
Colorado State @ UNLV +0.2 145.5 53% 91–86 ✗
Vermont @ UMBC +0.9 139.3 55% 62–75 ✓
New Hampshire @ UMass Lowell +2.8 145.0 66% 56–78 ✓
Binghamton @ Bryant +5.6 134.1 71% 79–67 ✗
Florida International @ Liberty +10.9 149.1 85% 89–90 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Winthrop +11.9 150.7 88% 64–68 ✓
Marshall @ App State +1.7 134.8 61% 94–93 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.