Betting Lines
| Spread | BRAD -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | VAL +130 BRAD -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAL +7 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | BRAD -0.8 (+7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.2 (+5.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRAD -0.4 (+7.4) | 141.8 (+9.2) | 46% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRAD -0.5 (+7.5) | 141.8 (+9.2) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRAD -0.5 (+7.5) | 140.9 (+10.1) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BRAD -0.5 (+7.5) | 143.6 (+7.4) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | BRAD 90 – 84 VAL |
| Feb 4, 2026 | BRAD 72 – 65 VAL |
| Mar 8, 2025 | BRAD 70 – 65 VAL |
| Feb 27, 2025 | BRAD 76 – 65 VAL |
| Dec 29, 2024 | BRAD 81 – 75 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 13-7 |
| Home | 13-4 | 14-3 |
| Away | 4-10 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 74.2 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#168) | 3.5 (#118) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.10 (#176) | 0.57 (#110) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.09 (#169) | 0.58 (#123) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#231) | 0.539 (#89) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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