Betting Lines
| Spread | BRAD -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | BRAD -450 VAL +340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BRAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRAD +5 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | BRAD -9.4 (-4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.4 (-13.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRAD -7.7 (-2.7) | 143.1 (-8.1) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRAD -9.2 (-4.2) | 141.0 (-6.0) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRAD -8.2 (-3.2) | 142.9 (-7.9) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRAD -7.9 (-2.9) | 142.5 (-7.5) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | BRAD 90 – 84 VAL |
| Feb 19, 2026 | VAL 79 – 72 BRAD |
| Feb 4, 2026 | BRAD 72 – 65 VAL |
| Feb 27, 2025 | BRAD 76 – 65 VAL |
| Dec 29, 2024 | BRAD 81 – 75 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BRAD | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 6-14 |
| Home | 14-4 | 10-7 |
| Away | 9-3 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 75.3 |
| Massey | 6.1 (#90) | -3.3 (#220) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.64 (#60) | -0.46 (#212) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.48 (#82) | -0.67 (#219) |
| RPI | 0.566 (#61) | 0.462 (#260) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BRAD | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.5% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 40.9% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.2% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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