Betting Lines
| Spread | BRAD -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | BRAD -410 VAL +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BRAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRAD +7 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | BRAD -5.4 (+1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.3 (-9.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRAD -5.0 (+2.0) | 140.7 (-3.7) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRAD -4.1 (+2.9) | 139.9 (-2.9) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRAD -4.6 (+2.4) | 141.5 (-4.5) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRAD -4.5 (+2.5) | 143.3 (-6.3) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | BRAD 90 – 84 VAL |
| Feb 19, 2026 | VAL 79 – 72 BRAD |
| Mar 8, 2025 | BRAD 70 – 65 VAL |
| Feb 27, 2025 | BRAD 76 – 65 VAL |
| Dec 29, 2024 | BRAD 81 – 75 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BRAD | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 11-9 |
| Home | 14-3 | 13-4 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 2.8 (#129) | 0.5 (#159) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.44 (#123) | -0.13 (#186) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#129) | -0.07 (#171) |
| RPI | 0.538 (#101) | 0.476 (#227) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BRAD | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 13.4% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 28.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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