Betting Lines
| Spread | BRAD -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | BRAD -238 VAL +195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BRAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRAD +6 | 174 | Won |
| Massey | BRAD -3.5 (+2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.3 (+28.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRAD -1.9 (+4.1) | 140.7 (+33.3) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRAD -2.9 (+3.1) | 140.5 (+33.5) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRAD -3.0 (+3.0) | 139.9 (+34.1) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRAD -2.7 (+3.3) | 140.5 (+33.5) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | VAL 79 – 72 BRAD |
| Feb 4, 2026 | BRAD 72 – 65 VAL |
| Mar 8, 2025 | BRAD 70 – 65 VAL |
| Feb 27, 2025 | BRAD 76 – 65 VAL |
| Dec 29, 2024 | BRAD 81 – 75 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BRAD | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 11-9 |
| Home | 14-3 | 13-4 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 3.7 (#111) | 0.2 (#159) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#117) | 0.10 (#154) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#124) | 0.17 (#152) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#111) | 0.493 (#203) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BRAD | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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