Betting Lines
| Spread | BRAD -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | VAL +170 BRAD -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRAD +11 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | BRAD -6.3 (-4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.3 (-11.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRAD -5.0 (-6.0) | 151.4 (-10.4) | 31% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRAD -6.9 (-4.1) | 148.5 (-7.5) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRAD -5.7 (-5.3) | 149.7 (-8.7) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRAD -5.8 (-5.2) | 151.2 (-10.2) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | BRAD 90 – 84 VAL |
| Feb 19, 2026 | VAL 79 – 72 BRAD |
| Feb 4, 2026 | BRAD 72 – 65 VAL |
| Mar 8, 2025 | BRAD 70 – 65 VAL |
| Dec 29, 2024 | BRAD 81 – 75 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-19 | 28-9 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 15-5 |
| Home | 10-7 | 14-4 |
| Away | 3-10 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 75.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.3 | 69.3 |
| Massey | -3.9 (#229) | 5.6 (#92) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.52 (#216) | 1.53 (#64) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.82 (#232) | 1.35 (#86) |
| RPI | 0.460 (#263) | 0.561 (#66) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 48.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 41.1% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 57.2% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 29.2% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 26.5% |
Game Analysis
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