Betting Lines
| Spread | WKU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | DEL +160 WKU -192 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WKU +1 | 175 | Lost |
| Massey | WKU -3.4 (+2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.1 (+34.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WKU -3.2 (+2.2) | 140.9 (+34.1) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WKU -2.5 (+1.5) | 137.7 (+37.3) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WKU -2.5 (+1.5) | 139.0 (+36.0) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WKU -2.6 (+1.6) | 139.2 (+35.8) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEL | WKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 11-9 |
| Home | 5-10 | 12-4 |
| Away | 4-10 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 77.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 77.0 |
| Massey | -6.4 (#268) | -0.1 (#163) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.08 (#266) | -0.06 (#171) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.24 (#257) | -0.12 (#172) |
| RPI | 0.449 (#275) | 0.509 (#159) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEL | WKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 39.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 39.7 |
| OREB / G | 6.5 | 13.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 45.4% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 21.7% | 33.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 28.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.1% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 30.7% |
Game Analysis
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