Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | SEA +455 SMC -625 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SEA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +2 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | SMC -9.1 (+7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.3 (+9.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -8.9 (+6.9) | 133.8 (+8.2) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -7.5 (+5.5) | 131.3 (+10.7) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -6.8 (+4.8) | 131.5 (+10.5) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -7.7 (+5.7) | 133.6 (+8.4) | 18% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 5, 2026 | SMC 93 – 76 SEA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SEA | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 27-6 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 16-2 |
| Home | 14-4 | 17-0 |
| Away | 5-8 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 65.2 |
| Massey | 3.0 (#123) | 15.1 (#34) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#121) | 2.58 (#34) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.74 (#108) | 3.43 (#31) |
| RPI | 0.507 (#162) | 0.628 (#21) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SEA | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 38.0% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 39.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 24.9% | 37.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 30.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 75.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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