Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | SMC -750 SEA +525 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +17 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | SMC -13.1 (+3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.3 (+31.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -14.4 (+2.6) | 135.5 (+33.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -11.9 (+5.1) | 134.1 (+34.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -10.3 (+6.7) | 134.1 (+34.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -11.9 (+5.1) | 136.1 (+32.9) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | SMC 72 – 70 SEA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-6 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 8-10 |
| Home | 17-0 | 14-4 |
| Away | 8-2 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 14.1 (#36) | 4.8 (#109) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.00 (#24) | 1.09 (#89) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.38 (#20) | 1.57 (#86) |
| RPI | 0.655 (#13) | 0.531 (#113) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 37.3% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 33.1% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.4% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.1% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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