Betting Lines
| Spread | L-MD -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | L-MD -218 ARMY +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | L-MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARMY +10 | 164 | Lost |
| Massey | L-MD -5.6 (-15.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.4 (+9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | L-MD -3.5 (-13.5) | 148.3 (+15.7) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | L-MD -4.1 (-14.1) | 145.1 (+18.9) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | L-MD -4.4 (-14.4) | 145.9 (+18.1) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | L-MD -4.0 (-14.0) | 146.2 (+17.8) | 72% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 7, 2026 | L-MD 84 – 76 ARMY |
| Feb 13, 2025 | ARMY 64 – 60 L-MD |
| Jan 8, 2025 | ARMY 74 – 72 L-MD |
| Mar 2, 2024 | L-MD 69 – 68 ARMY |
| Jan 10, 2024 | L-MD 71 – 65 ARMY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | L-MD | ARMY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 5-13 |
| Home | 8-6 | 6-10 |
| Away | 3-13 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.5 | 79.0 |
| Massey | -10.3 (#312) | -12.9 (#336) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.90 (#327) | -2.00 (#333) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.45 (#329) | -2.81 (#339) |
| RPI | 0.423 (#320) | 0.424 (#316) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | L-MD | ARMY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 55.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 28.2% |
Game Analysis
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