Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | MARQ +340 SJU -440 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MARQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +6 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | SJU -10.8 (+4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.9 (-10.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -6.9 (+0.9) | 153.6 (-7.6) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -8.5 (+2.5) | 149.5 (-3.5) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -7.7 (+1.7) | 150.4 (-4.4) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -9.2 (+3.2) | 152.3 (-6.3) | 19% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 13, 2026 | SJU 92 – 68 MARQ |
| Mar 14, 2025 | SJU 79 – 63 MARQ |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SJU 86 – 84 MARQ |
| Feb 4, 2025 | SJU 70 – 64 MARQ |
| Feb 10, 2024 | MARQ 86 – 75 SJU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MARQ | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 30-7 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 18-2 |
| Home | 10-7 | 18-2 |
| Away | 2-10 | 9-1 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 4.8 (#105) | 18.6 (#22) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.20 (#150) | 3.00 (#23) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.44 (#130) | 3.85 (#23) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#232) | 0.624 (#23) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MARQ | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 13.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 1.49 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 36.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 31.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 65.7% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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