Betting Lines
| Spread | MARQ -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | MARQ -185 SJU +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MARQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +2 | 170 | Lost |
| Massey | MARQ -2.3 (-4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.2 (+25.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MARQ -3.2 (-5.2) | 142.7 (+27.3) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -2.2 (-4.2) | 144.0 (+26.0) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -3.0 (-5.0) | 143.0 (+27.0) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -2.7 (-4.7) | 145.2 (+24.8) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | SJU 76 – 70 MARQ |
| Jan 13, 2026 | SJU 92 – 68 MARQ |
| Mar 14, 2025 | SJU 79 – 63 MARQ |
| Feb 4, 2025 | SJU 70 – 64 MARQ |
| Feb 10, 2024 | MARQ 86 – 75 SJU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MARQ | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 31-5 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 18-2 |
| Home | 14-3 | 19-0 |
| Away | 7-6 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 78.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 65.8 |
| Massey | 16.5 (#22) | 17.5 (#18) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.50 (#35) | 3.04 (#13) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.28 (#29) | 4.44 (#7) |
| RPI | 0.609 (#21) | 0.627 (#11) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MARQ | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 40.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 14.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 13.3% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 37.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 46.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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