Betting Lines
| Spread | MARQ -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | MARQ -333 SJU +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MARQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +11 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | MARQ -7.6 (+3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.2 (+11.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -6.4 (+4.6) | 148.8 (+12.2) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MARQ -7.6 (+3.4) | 148.5 (+12.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -7.7 (+3.3) | 148.0 (+13.0) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -6.9 (+4.1) | 148.4 (+12.6) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | SJU 76 – 70 MARQ |
| Jan 13, 2026 | SJU 92 – 68 MARQ |
| Mar 14, 2025 | SJU 79 – 63 MARQ |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SJU 86 – 84 MARQ |
| Feb 4, 2025 | SJU 70 – 64 MARQ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MARQ | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-10 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 11-9 |
| Home | 14-2 | 11-4 |
| Away | 7-5 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.1 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 16.6 (#12) | 12.4 (#35) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.61 (#15) | 1.58 (#63) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.20 (#11) | 2.15 (#58) |
| RPI | 0.622 (#15) | 0.561 (#81) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MARQ | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 39.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 14.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.58 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 39.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.5% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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