Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | SJU -1600 MARQ +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +24 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | SJU -19.5 (+4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.1 (+2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -15.1 (+8.9) | 155.3 (+4.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -16.9 (+7.1) | 152.4 (+7.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -17.7 (+6.3) | 152.7 (+7.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -17.5 (+6.5) | 154.2 (+5.8) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | SJU 76 – 70 MARQ |
| Mar 14, 2025 | SJU 79 – 63 MARQ |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SJU 86 – 84 MARQ |
| Feb 4, 2025 | SJU 70 – 64 MARQ |
| Feb 10, 2024 | MARQ 86 – 75 SJU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJU | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-7 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 7-13 |
| Home | 18-2 | 10-7 |
| Away | 9-1 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 75.8 |
| Massey | 18.3 (#17) | 2.2 (#136) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.02 (#44) | -0.42 (#212) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.98 (#42) | -0.68 (#215) |
| RPI | 0.604 (#36) | 0.482 (#209) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJU | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.8 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 37.7% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 31.8% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 67.0% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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