Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | SJU -140 MARQ +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +6 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | SJU -3.3 (+2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.4 (-13.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -4.8 (+1.2) | 141.4 (-7.4) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -4.1 (+1.9) | 139.9 (-5.9) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -4.2 (+1.8) | 140.6 (-6.6) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -3.8 (+2.2) | 140.4 (-6.4) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | SJU 76 – 70 MARQ |
| Jan 13, 2026 | SJU 92 – 68 MARQ |
| Mar 14, 2025 | SJU 79 – 63 MARQ |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SJU 86 – 84 MARQ |
| Feb 10, 2024 | MARQ 86 – 75 SJU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJU | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-5 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 13-7 |
| Home | 19-0 | 14-3 |
| Away | 8-2 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.5 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 68.7 |
| Massey | 17.1 (#20) | 17.0 (#22) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.77 (#23) | 2.98 (#17) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.12 (#11) | 3.97 (#15) |
| RPI | 0.622 (#22) | 0.627 (#17) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJU | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 41.1 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 14.2 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 12.9% |
| ORB% | 37.0% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 23.8% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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