Betting Lines
| Spread | TLSA -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | TLSA -950 CLT +625 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TLSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TLSA +5 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | TLSA -14.8 (-9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.9 (-3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TLSA -10.5 (-5.5) | 149.2 (+3.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TLSA -12.5 (-7.5) | 150.1 (+2.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TLSA -11.8 (-6.8) | 151.5 (+1.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TLSA -12.5 (-7.5) | 150.7 (+2.3) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 15, 2026 | TLSA 86 – 74 CLT |
| Jan 12, 2025 | TLSA 69 – 63 CLT |
| Feb 25, 2024 | TLSA 69 – 67 CLT |
| Jan 11, 2024 | CLT 84 – 76 TLSA |
| Nov 19, 2022 | CLT 68 – 65 TLSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TLSA | CLT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-8 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 9-9 |
| Home | 16-2 | 11-6 |
| Away | 8-4 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.9 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 74.3 |
| Massey | 10.4 (#54) | -1.4 (#188) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.30 (#76) | -0.20 (#189) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.67 (#75) | -0.40 (#198) |
| RPI | 0.567 (#62) | 0.495 (#190) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TLSA | CLT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 39.2% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.9% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 32.8% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 28.1% |
Game Analysis
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