Betting Lines
| Spread | CLT -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | TLSA +130 CLT -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TLSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TLSA +2 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | CLT -2.8 (+4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.3 (-1.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CLT -4.2 (+6.2) | 138.5 (-2.5) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CLT -1.7 (+3.7) | 136.7 (-0.7) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CLT -2.5 (+4.5) | 136.0 (-0.0) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CLT -2.8 (+4.8) | 135.9 (+0.1) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | TLSA 79 – 74 CLT |
| Jan 15, 2026 | TLSA 86 – 74 CLT |
| Jan 12, 2025 | TLSA 69 – 63 CLT |
| Jan 11, 2024 | CLT 84 – 76 TLSA |
| Nov 19, 2022 | CLT 68 – 65 TLSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TLSA | CLT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 19-12 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 13-5 |
| Home | 14-4 | 13-2 |
| Away | 2-9 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.3 | 68.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 66.3 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#187) | 4.5 (#109) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#204) | 1.07 (#98) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.39 (#206) | 1.18 (#104) |
| RPI | 0.467 (#252) | 0.573 (#57) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TLSA | CLT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 29.8% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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