Betting Lines
| Spread | TLSA -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | CLT +160 TLSA -192 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CLT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TLSA +12 | 160 | Lost |
| Massey | TLSA -7.2 (-4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.9 (+2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TLSA -6.0 (-6.0) | 151.9 (+8.1) | 31% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TLSA -4.8 (-7.2) | 148.8 (+11.2) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TLSA -5.9 (-6.1) | 150.1 (+9.9) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TLSA -5.7 (-6.3) | 151.2 (+8.8) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | TLSA 79 – 74 CLT |
| Jan 12, 2025 | TLSA 69 – 63 CLT |
| Feb 25, 2024 | TLSA 69 – 67 CLT |
| Jan 11, 2024 | CLT 84 – 76 TLSA |
| Nov 19, 2022 | CLT 68 – 65 TLSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CLT | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 30-8 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 13-5 |
| Home | 11-6 | 16-2 |
| Away | 4-8 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 83.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#174) | 10.3 (#57) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.32 (#203) | 1.36 (#76) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.40 (#201) | 1.51 (#90) |
| RPI | 0.487 (#198) | 0.569 (#69) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CLT | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 40.5% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 57.3% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 36.3% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 28.3% | 36.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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