Betting Lines
| Spread | TLSA -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | TLSA -120 CLT +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TLSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TLSA +6 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | TLSA -0.1 (+5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.4 (-15.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TLSA -0.6 (+5.4) | 146.1 (-14.1) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TLSA -0.7 (+5.3) | 146.8 (-14.8) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TLSA -0.7 (+5.3) | 144.4 (-12.4) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TLSA -0.3 (+5.7) | 145.6 (-13.6) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | TLSA 79 – 74 CLT |
| Jan 15, 2026 | TLSA 86 – 74 CLT |
| Feb 25, 2024 | TLSA 69 – 67 CLT |
| Jan 11, 2024 | CLT 84 – 76 TLSA |
| Nov 19, 2022 | CLT 68 – 65 TLSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TLSA | CLT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 3-15 |
| Home | 8-9 | 8-8 |
| Away | 3-8 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 75.0 |
| Massey | -9.2 (#315) | -5.4 (#256) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.70 (#310) | -0.94 (#255) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.08 (#308) | -1.16 (#248) |
| RPI | 0.394 (#338) | 0.463 (#236) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TLSA | CLT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 35.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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