Betting Lines
| Spread | CLT -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | CLT -300 TLSA +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CLT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CLT +8 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | CLT -8.6 (-0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.9 (+29.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CLT -5.4 (+2.6) | 132.6 (+27.4) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CLT -8.5 (-0.5) | 133.2 (+26.8) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CLT -5.4 (+2.6) | 131.9 (+28.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CLT -5.6 (+2.4) | 132.3 (+27.7) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | TLSA 79 – 74 CLT |
| Jan 15, 2026 | TLSA 86 – 74 CLT |
| Jan 12, 2025 | TLSA 69 – 63 CLT |
| Feb 25, 2024 | TLSA 69 – 67 CLT |
| Nov 19, 2022 | CLT 68 – 65 TLSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CLT | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-12 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 7-11 |
| Home | 13-2 | 14-4 |
| Away | 5-7 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.0 | 74.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 74.5 |
| Massey | 4.4 (#106) | -0.1 (#169) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#133) | -0.40 (#209) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.66 (#130) | -0.51 (#216) |
| RPI | 0.542 (#106) | 0.451 (#260) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CLT | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 31.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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