Betting Lines
| Spread | NCCU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | SCST +130 NCCU -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SCST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SCST +13 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | NCCU -2.4 (+15.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.3 (+12.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCCU -0.2 (+13.2) | 135.1 (+21.9) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCCU -2.4 (+15.4) | 135.0 (+22.0) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NCCU -2.4 (+15.4) | 131.7 (+25.3) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCCU -2.8 (+15.8) | 138.7 (+18.3) | 37% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | SCST 80 – 64 NCCU |
| Mar 15, 2025 | SCST 88 – 67 NCCU |
| Mar 7, 2025 | SCST 87 – 71 NCCU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | NCCU 82 – 77 SCST |
| Mar 8, 2024 | NCCU 79 – 68 SCST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SCST | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 7-7 | 8-6 |
| Home | 6-5 | 8-5 |
| Away | 3-16 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.6 | 77.3 |
| Massey | -19.8 (#362) | -14.4 (#347) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.89 (#353) | -2.21 (#340) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.97 (#357) | -2.97 (#345) |
| RPI | 0.382 (#357) | 0.433 (#307) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SCST | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.1% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 30.2 | 30.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.7% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 28.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.8% | 54.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 61.8% | 61.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 37.8% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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