Betting Lines
| Spread | NCCU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | NCCU -355 SCST +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SCST +16 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | NCCU -7.6 (-23.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.0 (-3.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCCU -5.8 (-21.8) | 143.1 (+0.9) | 80% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCCU -4.0 (-20.0) | 141.1 (+2.9) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCCU -6.4 (-22.4) | 143.4 (+0.6) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NCCU -5.9 (-21.9) | 145.1 (-1.1) | 79% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | SCST 85 – 72 NCCU |
| Mar 15, 2025 | SCST 88 – 67 NCCU |
| Mar 7, 2025 | SCST 87 – 71 NCCU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | NCCU 82 – 77 SCST |
| Mar 8, 2024 | NCCU 79 – 68 SCST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCCU | SCST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 8-6 | 7-7 |
| Home | 8-5 | 6-5 |
| Away | 4-12 | 3-16 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.3 | 80.6 |
| Massey | -14.7 (#350) | -19.3 (#360) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.10 (#338) | -2.80 (#353) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.86 (#343) | -3.82 (#356) |
| RPI | 0.452 (#278) | 0.402 (#353) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCCU | SCST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 29.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 28.5% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.5% | 54.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 60.8% | 62.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 37.5% |
Game Analysis
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