Betting Lines
| Spread | SCST -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | SCST -550 NCCU +380 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SCST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SCST +16 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | SCST -10.8 (+5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.0 (+8.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SCST -10.4 (+5.6) | 151.1 (+6.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SCST -9.0 (+7.0) | 148.5 (+9.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SCST -11.4 (+4.6) | 149.5 (+8.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SCST -10.7 (+5.3) | 150.3 (+7.7) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | SCST 80 – 64 NCCU |
| Feb 19, 2026 | SCST 85 – 72 NCCU |
| Mar 15, 2025 | SCST 88 – 67 NCCU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | NCCU 82 – 77 SCST |
| Mar 8, 2024 | NCCU 79 – 68 SCST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SCST | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 11-3 | 6-8 |
| Home | 10-2 | 10-4 |
| Away | 7-10 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.0 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 78.8 |
| Massey | -1.5 (#187) | -9.0 (#312) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.65 (#228) | -1.72 (#319) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.77 (#229) | -2.47 (#331) |
| RPI | 0.489 (#202) | 0.438 (#301) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SCST | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 35.4% | 35.1% |
| FT Rate | 31.9% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.5% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 67.1% | 61.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.0% | 31.3% |
Game Analysis
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