Betting Lines
| Spread | SCST -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | SCST -320 NCCU +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SCST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SCST +21 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | SCST -7.5 (+13.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.8 (+6.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SCST -7.2 (+13.8) | 146.3 (+8.7) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SCST -5.8 (+15.2) | 144.5 (+10.5) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SCST -7.1 (+13.9) | 145.3 (+9.7) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SCST -6.9 (+14.1) | 145.2 (+9.8) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | SCST 80 – 64 NCCU |
| Feb 19, 2026 | SCST 85 – 72 NCCU |
| Mar 7, 2025 | SCST 87 – 71 NCCU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | NCCU 82 – 77 SCST |
| Mar 8, 2024 | NCCU 79 – 68 SCST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SCST | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 11-3 | 6-8 |
| Home | 10-2 | 10-4 |
| Away | 7-10 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.0 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 78.8 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#191) | -9.2 (#314) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.60 (#225) | -1.65 (#315) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.76 (#225) | -2.42 (#330) |
| RPI | 0.494 (#187) | 0.444 (#290) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SCST | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 35.6% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 30.8% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.7% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 61.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.1% | 30.5% |
Game Analysis
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