Betting Lines
| Spread | NCCU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | NCCU -125 SCST +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCCU +5 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | SCST -1.8 (+6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.1 (+12.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SCST -2.3 (+7.3) | 145.6 (+13.4) | 39% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SCST -1.4 (+6.4) | 143.3 (+15.7) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SCST -2.3 (+7.3) | 147.2 (+11.8) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SCST -2.8 (+7.8) | 147.3 (+11.7) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | SCST 80 – 64 NCCU |
| Feb 19, 2026 | SCST 85 – 72 NCCU |
| Mar 15, 2025 | SCST 88 – 67 NCCU |
| Mar 7, 2025 | SCST 87 – 71 NCCU |
| Mar 8, 2024 | NCCU 79 – 68 SCST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCCU | SCST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 6-8 | 11-3 |
| Home | 10-4 | 10-2 |
| Away | 2-13 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 76.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.8 | 71.5 |
| Massey | -8.7 (#306) | -3.5 (#220) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.63 (#313) | -1.13 (#266) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.48 (#326) | -1.21 (#255) |
| RPI | 0.417 (#312) | 0.438 (#281) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCCU | SCST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 34.5% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 28.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.3% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 60.5% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.1% | 34.1% |
Game Analysis
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