Betting Lines
| Spread | FAU -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | UTSA +575 FAU -850 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAU +8 | 112 | Lost |
| Massey | FAU -15.8 (+7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.6 (-44.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAU -12.2 (+4.2) | 153.0 (-41.0) | 16% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAU -12.0 (+4.0) | 150.5 (-38.5) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAU -12.9 (+4.9) | 150.3 (-38.3) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAU -12.3 (+4.3) | 151.3 (-39.3) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | FAU 110 – 70 UTSA |
| Jan 30, 2025 | FAU 94 – 74 UTSA |
| Jan 21, 2024 | FAU 112 – 103 UTSA |
| Feb 24, 2023 | FAU 106 – 66 UTSA |
| Jan 20, 2023 | FAU 83 – 64 UTSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTSA | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-25 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 9-9 |
| Home | 2-12 | 11-4 |
| Away | 2-12 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 77.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.9 | 75.3 |
| Massey | -14.4 (#346) | 4.4 (#108) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.90 (#328) | 0.32 (#136) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.32 (#322) | 0.73 (#110) |
| RPI | 0.429 (#311) | 0.527 (#116) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTSA | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.6% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 28.4% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.5% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 61.2% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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