Betting Lines
| Spread | FAU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | FAU -450 UTSA +340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAU +20 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | FAU -9.0 (+11.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.5 (-0.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAU -7.7 (+12.3) | 156.6 (+11.4) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAU -10.6 (+9.4) | 158.1 (+9.9) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAU -7.4 (+12.6) | 157.3 (+10.7) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAU -7.4 (+12.6) | 157.1 (+10.9) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | FAU 60 – 52 UTSA |
| Dec 31, 2025 | FAU 110 – 70 UTSA |
| Jan 21, 2024 | FAU 112 – 103 UTSA |
| Feb 24, 2023 | FAU 106 – 66 UTSA |
| Jan 20, 2023 | FAU 83 – 64 UTSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAU | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 6-12 |
| Home | 8-5 | 7-7 |
| Away | 6-7 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.1 | 74.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.4 | 77.5 |
| Massey | 3.0 (#115) | -2.7 (#211) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.40 (#142) | -0.34 (#205) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.69 (#124) | -0.50 (#207) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#94) | 0.512 (#158) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAU | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 64.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 31.0% |
Game Analysis
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