Betting Lines
| Spread | FAU -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Over |
| Money | UTSA +1000 FAU -2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAU +9 | 215 | Lost |
| Massey | FAU -16.7 (+7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.9 (+47.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAU -14.0 (+5.0) | 160.2 (+54.8) | 14% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAU -13.7 (+4.7) | 160.2 (+54.8) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAU -13.7 (+4.7) | 159.4 (+55.6) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAU -13.1 (+4.1) | 162.8 (+52.2) | 15% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | FAU 60 – 52 UTSA |
| Dec 31, 2025 | FAU 110 – 70 UTSA |
| Jan 30, 2025 | FAU 94 – 74 UTSA |
| Feb 24, 2023 | FAU 106 – 66 UTSA |
| Jan 20, 2023 | FAU 83 – 64 UTSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTSA | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 25-9 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 14-4 |
| Home | 7-9 | 13-1 |
| Away | 4-11 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 7-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 82.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.6 | 73.4 |
| Massey | -6.9 (#288) | 13.5 (#24) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.30 (#292) | 2.06 (#38) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.49 (#291) | 2.50 (#40) |
| RPI | 0.421 (#303) | 0.618 (#22) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTSA | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 49.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 56.0% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 34.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.7% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 18.2% |
Game Analysis
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