Betting Lines
| Spread | FAU -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | FAU -1800 UTSA +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAU +40 | 180 | Won |
| Massey | FAU -20.1 (+19.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.1 (+29.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAU -16.7 (+23.3) | 150.8 (+29.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAU -14.6 (+25.4) | 150.2 (+29.8) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAU -15.8 (+24.2) | 146.4 (+33.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAU -16.8 (+23.2) | 147.7 (+32.3) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | FAU 60 – 52 UTSA |
| Jan 30, 2025 | FAU 94 – 74 UTSA |
| Jan 21, 2024 | FAU 112 – 103 UTSA |
| Feb 24, 2023 | FAU 106 – 66 UTSA |
| Jan 20, 2023 | FAU 83 – 64 UTSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAU | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 5-25 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 1-17 |
| Home | 11-4 | 2-12 |
| Away | 4-9 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.2 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.3 | 82.9 |
| Massey | 5.2 (#106) | -10.8 (#321) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.11 (#94) | -1.02 (#257) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.54 (#93) | -1.60 (#268) |
| RPI | 0.590 (#48) | 0.486 (#199) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAU | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 36.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 27.8% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 42.7% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 63.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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