Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | GMU -142 DAY +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +15 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | GMU -3.2 (-18.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.7 (+10.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -4.0 (-19.0) | 134.8 (+14.2) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -3.0 (-18.0) | 134.5 (+14.5) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -3.8 (-18.8) | 135.0 (+14.0) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -3.7 (-18.7) | 135.7 (+13.3) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 16, 2025 | GMU 67 – 59 DAY |
| Feb 22, 2024 | GMU 71 – 67 DAY |
| Feb 25, 2023 | GMU 74 – 69 DAY |
| Jan 23, 2022 | GMU 50 – 49 DAY |
| Feb 6, 2021 | DAY 74 – 65 GMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 25-12 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 12-6 |
| Home | 17-3 | 14-4 |
| Away | 4-6 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 69.3 |
| Massey | 5.7 (#96) | 5.5 (#99) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.42 (#70) | 1.03 (#88) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.53 (#81) | 1.40 (#87) |
| RPI | 0.585 (#44) | 0.558 (#67) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 32.4% | 35.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 22.2% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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