Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | DAY -380 GMU +290 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +8 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | DAY -6.0 (-14.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.1 (-9.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -5.5 (-13.5) | 131.7 (-5.7) | 71% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -5.5 (-13.5) | 128.8 (-2.8) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -5.1 (-13.1) | 131.7 (-5.7) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -5.2 (-13.2) | 132.2 (-6.2) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | DAY 82 – 67 GMU |
| Feb 22, 2024 | GMU 71 – 67 DAY |
| Feb 25, 2023 | GMU 74 – 69 DAY |
| Jan 23, 2022 | GMU 50 – 49 DAY |
| Feb 6, 2021 | DAY 74 – 65 GMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 15-3 |
| Home | 16-2 | 18-2 |
| Away | 5-5 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 64.0 |
| Massey | 8.9 (#66) | 6.7 (#81) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.53 (#64) | 0.62 (#113) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.26 (#59) | 1.57 (#79) |
| RPI | 0.572 (#56) | 0.538 (#102) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 38.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.67 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 34.5% |
| FT Rate | 30.0% | 33.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 42.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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