Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +1 | 99 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -0.1 (+0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.6 (-29.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -0.7 (+1.7) | 128.5 (-29.5) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -0.3 (+0.7) | 131.9 (-32.9) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -0.4 (+0.6) | 132.7 (-33.7) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -0.7 (+0.3) | 129.5 (-30.5) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | DAY 82 – 67 GMU |
| Jan 16, 2025 | GMU 67 – 59 DAY |
| Feb 22, 2024 | GMU 71 – 67 DAY |
| Feb 25, 2023 | GMU 74 – 69 DAY |
| Feb 6, 2021 | DAY 74 – 65 GMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-16 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 14-4 |
| Home | 10-4 | 13-4 |
| Away | 4-8 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 61.2 |
| Massey | 4.5 (#108) | 7.9 (#72) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.03 (#173) | 1.08 (#91) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.23 (#157) | 1.31 (#93) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#171) | 0.542 (#96) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 48.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.7% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 78.2% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 16.1% |
Game Analysis
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