Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | DAY -800 GMU +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +5 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | DAY -10.7 (-15.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.6 (+18.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -10.1 (-15.1) | 127.8 (+15.2) | 79% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -9.9 (-14.9) | 129.0 (+14.0) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -9.0 (-14.0) | 128.6 (+14.4) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -10.1 (-15.1) | 129.6 (+13.4) | 80% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | DAY 82 – 67 GMU |
| Jan 16, 2025 | GMU 67 – 59 DAY |
| Feb 22, 2024 | GMU 71 – 67 DAY |
| Jan 23, 2022 | GMU 50 – 49 DAY |
| Feb 6, 2021 | DAY 74 – 65 GMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 11-7 |
| Home | 14-2 | 14-2 |
| Away | 5-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 68.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.0 | 67.3 |
| Massey | 8.2 (#70) | 1.1 (#150) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.04 (#88) | 0.29 (#147) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.51 (#76) | 0.36 (#145) |
| RPI | 0.557 (#73) | 0.535 (#112) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.2% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.3% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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